Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics gets almost everything right almost all of the time, but I believe he missed a little in his analysis today of What the Voters Told Us Last Night. Here’s what he says they told us:
The following points are what we know for certain:
1. The voters of Virginia declared a preference for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds.
2. The voters of New Jersey declared a preference for Chris Christie over Jon Corzine.
3. The voters of New York’s Twenty-Third Congressional District declared a preference for Bill Owens over Doug Hoffman.
And that’s it. Anything else is reading between the lines, and subject to the haziness that necessarily goes along with such an endeavor.
I beg to differ, at least regarding Virginia. First, let’s recall the statewide election four years ago. In that election, to adapt Cost’s words, in the race for governor, the voters of Virginia declared a preference for Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Jerry Kilgore. Yes, they did, but they also declared their preference for Republican Bill Bolling over Democrat Leslie Byrne and for Republican Bob McDonnell over Democrat Creigh Deeds.
Yesterday, by contrast, the voters surely did, as Cost says, declare their preference McDonnell over Deeds, but that definitely was not all they (we) did. They (we) also declared our preference for Republican Bolling, re-electing him Lieutenant Governor, and for Republican Ken Cuccinelli, electing him Attorney General, and those preferences were of record-setting proportions.
And that’s not all. Even in the close suburbs of solid blue Charlottesville, the Republicans woke up today to find themselves in the majority on the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors:
A GOP supporter waved a broom Tuesday at Rivals Sports Bar and Grill after Republicans swept the competitive Albemarle County Board of Supervisors races.
Republican Rodney S. Thomas pulled ahead of Democrat David L. Slutzky, the incumbent, taking the Rio District seat. And Duane Snow, a Republican businessman and grandfather of 13, sailed past a Democrat and an independent….
There will be three Republicans, two Democrats and one independent on the Albemarle Board of Supervisors beginning next year. The current board has three Democrats, two independents and only one Republican.
In addition, two area Republican state delegates faced serious and well-funded Democratic opponents for the first time in recent years.
Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle County, easily fended off a challenge from Democrat Cynthia Neff on Tuesday in one of the Charlottesville region’s most closely watched House of Delegates races.
Bell, a four-term incumbent and former Orange County prosecutor, won another term representing the 58th District with 67 percent of the vote….
Del. R. Steve Landes, R-Weyers Cave, trounced Democratic challenger Greg Marrow in the 25th District, which includes three precincts in the Crozet area of Albemarle.
Landes, who has served in the House since 1996 and had not faced a Democratic opponent in the previous six elections, took 73 percent of the vote….
The voters of Virginia, in short, definitely did declare their preference for McDonnell over Deeds, but that definitely was not “it,” or at least not by any means all of “it.”
A Republican tide swept over Virginia yesterday, and while it is true, as Cost states, that Obama “was not on the ballot,” I think the vote in Virginia was much more than what Cost calls “a cautionary tale for the President.” It reflected profound discontent with, and more than a small amount of anger at, his profligacy with their money and his “plan” for their health care. That tide may well be all washed up by 2010 and especially by 2012, but any President or Blue Dog swimming against it in the near future does so at his peril.
