Most commentary on the politics of immigration reform emphasizes the split it causes among Republicans. Mickey Kaus is an exception, and today he points to an interesting article by Ron Brownstein in the Los Angeles Times that discusses poll results showing that Democrats in general, and blacks in particular and less-educated blacks especially in particular, are much less sympathetic to “guest worker” programs and legalizing illegals than are Republicans.
Have the Democrats made a fateful choice to replace their base, to place pleasing Hispanic voters over pleasing black voters? The immigration issue promises some stormy days ahead for the “rainbow coalition.” (That may be the only silver lining to this cloud.)
UPDATE
From an article in today’s Detroit News:
“In this era of mass immigration, no group has benefited less or been harmed more than the African-American population,” said Vernon Briggs, a Cornell University labor economist who has studied the effect of immigration on blacks for more than three decades.
In a 2004 book, “The Impact of Immigration on African Americans,” Briggs and other scholars charted myriad effects, including lower wages for less-skilled and less-educated blacks and their substantial displacement from the job market, with many dropping out of the labor pool entirely.
In education, they found that providing remedial resources for immigrant students cut into resources for native-born students and modestly displaced blacks from affirmative action programs.
It would be interesting to see survey results measuring black opinion on whether recent immigrants, including illegals, should receive admissions and hiring preferences based on their ethnicity.
UPDATE II [14 April]
I may have been too quick, above, to suggest that the Democrats have decided to subordinate the interests of their current black “base” in order to appeal to Hispanics. Many Hispanics, in any event, think Harry Reid and his dour band of Democratic nay-sayers have sold out Hispanics in order to appease big labor. According Reuben Navarette in his syndicated column, who describes Sen. Reid as “the villain in this drama.”
Hector Flores, president of the League of United Latin-American Citizens, told me that he tried to impress upon Reid’s office that it was important to get immigration reform done.
“Apparently, it fell on deaf ears,” Flores said.
….
After the Senate Judiciary Committee put out a guest-worker bill, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney issued a statement saying: “Guest-workers programs are a bad idea and harm all workers.’’
That did it. Senate Democrats sided with labor, and sold out Latinos….
… Cecilia Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza, told me: “I don’t believe that it’s wise for Democrats to come to our community and ask for votes by saying: ‘Hey, we kept an immigration bill from going forward.’ … People understand when they’re being used.’’
….
Frank Sharry, the executive director of the liberal National Immigration Forum, said in a statement: “We cannot escape the conclusion that the Democratic Senate leadership was more interested in keeping the immigration issue alive in the run-up to midterms than in enacting immigration reform legislation.’’
Sometimes it’s hard to keep straight who, or what principles, the Democrats are abandoning.
Irreverent aside: I can’t read any reference to the “Rainbow Coalition”, without thinking of the Simon and Garfunkle song, “My little town”.
Look up the lyrics, and you’ll understand why…
Don’t kid yourself, black people got nowhere to go.
Don’t kid yourself. Republicans are much better at abandoning their base.
Can someone define out loud exactly who the base of the GOP is? Not that I don’t already know, but I’d like for somebody to say it for the purpose of debate.
–Cobra
democrats figure on getting hispanic votes. The feeling that alot of whites have in regard to blacks, or that they at least think they should pretend to have, hispanics don’t have. They don’t have white guilt. They don’t think they owe us anything. I read a book called the false alliance or something like that written by a hispanic american to the effect that they are blacks don’t have interests in common and this will become more evident in the future.
Ok…ok. I guess I’ll have to post it myself.
From Ed Gillespie, former RNC Chairman:
>>>”The Republican Party cannot become an anti-immigration party. Our majority already rests too heavily on white voters, given that current demographic voting percentages will not allow us to hold our majority in the future. Between 2000 and 2004, President Bush increased his support in the Hispanic community by nine percentage points. Had he not, John Kerry would be president today.”
It should come as no surprise
–Cobra