One of the reasons that off-year elections — especially for governors and other state offices — predict so little is that states have no foreign policy, which, as now, often looms large in presidential elections.
And while I’m at it, one more caveat: it is true that Bush’s popularity is quite low, but — even leaving aside the observation that what goes down can go up — Bush won’t be running next time. It is also true that the Iraq war, supported by most Republicans, is low, and falling. But just because many voters don’t like the war, it does not follow that they are ready, yet, to trust the Democrats to manage our national security. (Sorry, that was two caveats.)
In Virginia, Mark Warner, with the help of a large tax increase, is leaving the commonwealth with a surplus, but then he doesn’t have to pay for a defense department, and Tim Kaine did not have to say what he would do to win (or avoid losing) in Iraq.
Thus my impression is that Tuesday’s vote has the same clear lesson for each party: both optimism and pessimism are premature.
So long as the lesson is that Bush should be there side by side with every congressman in a tight race, I think we can be happy.