Take a look at the latest (Oct. 6) electoral map, reflecting statewide polls, on Real Clear Politics.
RCP gives Bush, in this snapshot, 260 electoral votes and Kerry 220. The following states (and their electoral votes) were too close to call:
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (20)
Minn. (10)
Iowa (7)
New Mex. (5)
Oregon (7)
If this configuration were to hold up to election day, Bush would win outright if he won Ohio OR Minn. OR Iowa OR Oregon.
Kerry, on the other hand, would have win EVERY ONE of those states, which would give him 273 electoral votes.
Now it gets really interesting. If Kerry won every one of those states except New Hampshire, he would wind up with 269 electoral votes to 268 for Bush. If he won every one of those states except New Mexico, he would wind up with 268 to Bush’s 269. Since 270 votes are required for a majority of the electoral college, either one of those results would throw the election into the House, where Bush would presumably win since each state casts one vote.
Or, as an alternative, one or more electors could switch sides.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE
The mathematically inclined among you will have noticed a small problem with the above numbers. Although the map gives all four of Maine’s votes to Kerry, RCP’s electoral vote count actually counts one of Maine’s congressional districts as undecided. (Maine and Nebraska don’t give an electoral vote to winners in each congressional district). That’s why Bush’s total today add up only to 264 votes. Thus if Kerry wins the toss-up Maine district as well as one of my scenarios above his total could reach 270, not the 269 I stated above.
I wondered why you were getting 269-268, which would be a majority. You were missing one in Maine, as you’re addendum notes. Another point I’d make though, is if there was a 269-269 split, it would go to the house, as you state, but I would note that the House votes on non-majority electoral college situations AFTER the Jan 3 inaugration (so it could be controlled by Democrats, although most projections don’t show that) AND more importantly, the House votes on a state-by-state delegation basis (any state with an equal number of Democrats and Republicans would be unable to come to an agreement on their states vote, and if there were enough of these, 26 states delegation votes might not be obtainable for either side – The Senate votes straight up on the Vice-President, and we could very easily retain a tie or even Democratic majority there, meaning that either Vice-President Cheney would break his own tie making himself VP-re-elect and eventual Acting President, or Edwards could become VP-elect/Acting President while the House continued in deadlock on Presidency — imagine further that in 2006 the Republicans gain enough ground to break a House deadlock, and Bush becomes President re-elect on Jan 3rd, 2007 with Edwards as his duly elected VP).
Chetly – It gets weirder and weirder. By the way, a 269-268 vote would not give anyone a majority, which requires 270, and so would still go to the House.
269-268 would only be possible if an elector decided to abstain from his vote, or if for some statistically improbable reason one of the Maine Congressional districts ended up in an exact tie, or if the House or Senate decided not to recognize a delegate’s vote as valid (remember Al Gore accepting all the Florida delegates as valid on Jan 3, 2001… they could have been “challenged”, and the House has the sole discretion of accepting them).
Indeed, there was talk in 2000 that the entire Florida delegation’s electors would be ignored, invalidated, or abstained (or in 2000 that the legislature of Florida would send a Republican delegation, and judiciary of Florida a Democratic delegation, to Washington). There becomes a wide open Constitutional question of whether an abstaining vote reduces the majority necessary or not (this would involve case law dealing with the Civil War, where most southern states abstained in 1864).
Of course, you’re right, if this happened, it would not be a majority of the CURRENT electors, and would go to the House (and Supreme Court, no doubt).