Texas Top 10% Plan Works

Texas’s Top 10% plan, under which the graduates in the top 10% of their graduating classes from every high school in the state are guaranteen admission to the state university of their choice, has been roundly criticized on several fronts. Those who prefer race preferences criticize the top 10% plan precisely because it does not take race into account. Others complain that it forces outstanding students who rank just below the top 10% in highly competitive high schools to leave the state, to make room for poorly prepared students from the top 10% of inferior schools.

Until now these complaints have echoed loudly in a data vacuum. Now, however, there is interesting empirical evidence. Two scholars have

analyzed a baseline survey of 13,803 Texas high-school seniors whom we first interviewed in 2002 to learn about their college plans. A random subsample of 5,200 of those seniors were interviewed again one year later to determine who had actually enrolled in college, and where. Thus we can now link where students wanted to go to college with where they actually enrolled, according to class rank and type of high school.

The results? The survey

reveals little evidence that masses of students, including those who graduated from feeder schools, are being crowded out of the most selective public institutions in Texas. Instead, the greatest difficulty encountered by high-performing Texas students appears to be gaining admission to institutions outside the state. That problem is particularly pronounced for graduates of the feeder schools: Fewer than half who sought admission to out-of-state institutions actually enrolled at one. That feeder-school students who designated a college outside of Texas as their top choice were highly unlikely to enroll at Austin or College Station suggests that the public flagships no longer serve as backup institutions for them.

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In sum, our research findings help set the record straight: Despite the recent calls to rescind HB 588 on the basis of anecdotal accounts suggesting that the best and brightest are being squeezed out of Texas public institutions, empirical evidence from a representative survey of Texas high-school seniors indicates otherwise. In fact, our examination of ranked preferences reveals that, if anything, students who leave the state do so by choice, not because they were denied admission to a preferred Texas institution. Based on students’ preferences, it appears that more students, particularly those in the top 20 percent, would leave if they were admitted to their preferred out-of-state institution. The percent plan could very well be keeping them in the state.