“Hail Mary!” Or, What Is A Democrat? Take Two

According to sources too numerous to link, the Democrats are about to engage in a great civil war to determine whether they should maximize or minimize their differences with Bush and the Republicans. They all seem to agree that the “accomodationist” strategy followed by Daschle and Gephardt was a dismal failure, but one faction thinks that turning left by opposing Bush’s Iraq policy, calling for repeal of his tax cuts, etc., would lead to even more dramatic failure in the future. It will be fun to watch.

The first act of that drama is about to unfold in Louisiana, and as usual that state’s politics will prove quite entertaining. Where else could the banners of both of the Democratic factions be carried into battle … by the same candidate, charging furiously in opposite directions within the space of a month?

As Rod Dreher explains in a delicious article on NRO, Mary Landrieu was elected as a moderate Democrat in the John Breaux tradition. In this past election she ran so far from the national Democrats that she could have been mistaken for Bush’s surrogate. She was rewarded with 46% of the vote, a strong plurality, but her several Republican opponents received 51%. Under Louisiana’s unique rules, she must now face a run-off against the second place finisher, Bush favorite Susan Terrell, a strong challenger.

Dreher ably describes her predicament:

Landrieu ran as a Bush-friendly moderate Democrat, which made sense in the general election. But now that Louisiana voters can clearly choose between a sometimes-conservative Democratic woman, or the real thing, it’s hard to see the rationale for her campaign.

This may be why Landrieu is suddenly running away from the “accomodationist” party leadership, which (the theory goes) led the Democrats to Tuesday’s debacle, and seems to be preparing to do a 180-degree turn as a Bush-bashing old-style Democrat. Given Louisiana’s conservative political culture, and the election feat of historical magnitude President Bush has just pulled off, this strategy has to qualify as a “Hail Mary.”

In many respects Landrieu’s dilemma is that of the national Democrats writ small: if she fires up the black base of the Democrats in Louisiana, she will alienate the white majority; if she doesn’t, her base will not turn out.

Dreher makes the further telling point that the Republican team of all-stars — Bush, Cheyney, McCain, Guiliani, etc., etc., is available to come in and generate support for Terrell, but who can Landrieu call on? the Clintons? Gore? Daschle? Sharpton?

For some reason Landrieu hasn’t yet asked for my advice, but when she calls here is what I’ll say:

1) Leave no light between yourself and Bush on national security issues (all of them, including the Homeland Security department), except perhaps to criticize him from the right for spending too much time dithering at the UN.

2) Campaign hard as a traditional, full-throated populist Democrat on all the time-tested hot-button issues — Social Security, the environment, taxes.

3) Come out swinging against all forms of racial discrimination, including affirmative action/preferential treatment, criticizing Bush and the Republican establishment of timidity for refusing to push this issue, for not having the courage of their stated convictions. This will offend black leaders, but it is less clear that it will offend black voters, who may in any event prefer and come out for a liberal candidate who is offering them no race-based favors over a conservative candidate who is offering them no race-based favors. And it will help with everyone else.

Now, that would be an interesting race.

UPDATE – Congratulations to David Frum at NRO. In giving his advice to the Dems, he gets two out of three:

Tough on security issues, radical on economic issues–it